Re: Math experiment



In article <Xns993E73DCDC8FEgoddardb@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
Bart Goddard <goddardbe@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

No. 2/3 is the right answer. If you stick with your first door,
you have a 1/3 change of winning. If the car is behind one of
the other TWO doors, and you switch, you're guaranteed to get it.
Monty opening that door is really a feignt. Your second choice
is between A. the best prize behind one door and B. the best
prize behind two doors.

I coded it, you explained it, and I STILL don't get it... <sigh>

There's a 1/3 chance that I picked the right door in the first place --
simple enough.

Then Monte shows me a door that does NOT contain the grand prize.
Regardless of which door I pick to start with, he's able to do this,
because there are 3 doors and only 1 prize. Also, he's never going to
show me the car. So, what I learned is that there is a goat remaining.
But I knew that BEFORE Monte opened the door.

Monte: Pick a door.
Me: 2
Monte: I can tell you right now that at least one of the other doors (1
or 3) hides a goat.
Me: Right. I get it.
Monte: You don't have to believe me, in fact, I'll show you -- it's
behind door #1. <Carol Merrill shows us> See?
Me: Right. There's a goat. I get it.

Ooo, this is weird...

So, let's just say that I pass out at this point, and come-to with no
recollection of what has transpired, previously[1]. Monte refreshes my
memory:

Monte: You were about to pick between door #2 (your current choice) and
door #3 for the car.
Me: Sounds like a 50/50 proposition.
Bart: Actually, it's 2/3 in your favor.
Me: Huh?


----
[1] Note: That little insight (you gave the clue, previously) just got
me over the 33% => 50% hump. Now I'm working on the 50% => 66% one.

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