# Re: Math experiment

*From*: Miss Elaine Eos <Misc@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>*Date*: Mon, 28 May 2007 10:29:33 -0700

In article <Xns993E73DCDC8FEgoddardb@xxxxxxxxxxx>,

Bart Goddard <goddardbe@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

No. 2/3 is the right answer. If you stick with your first door,

you have a 1/3 change of winning. If the car is behind one of

the other TWO doors, and you switch, you're guaranteed to get it.

Monty opening that door is really a feignt. Your second choice

is between A. the best prize behind one door and B. the best

prize behind two doors.

I coded it, you explained it, and I STILL don't get it... <sigh>

There's a 1/3 chance that I picked the right door in the first place --

simple enough.

Then Monte shows me a door that does NOT contain the grand prize.

Regardless of which door I pick to start with, he's able to do this,

because there are 3 doors and only 1 prize. Also, he's never going to

show me the car. So, what I learned is that there is a goat remaining.

But I knew that BEFORE Monte opened the door.

Monte: Pick a door.

Me: 2

Monte: I can tell you right now that at least one of the other doors (1

or 3) hides a goat.

Me: Right. I get it.

Monte: You don't have to believe me, in fact, I'll show you -- it's

behind door #1. <Carol Merrill shows us> See?

Me: Right. There's a goat. I get it.

Ooo, this is weird...

So, let's just say that I pass out at this point, and come-to with no

recollection of what has transpired, previously[1]. Monte refreshes my

memory:

Monte: You were about to pick between door #2 (your current choice) and

door #3 for the car.

Me: Sounds like a 50/50 proposition.

Bart: Actually, it's 2/3 in your favor.

Me: Huh?

----

[1] Note: That little insight (you gave the clue, previously) just got

me over the 33% => 50% hump. Now I'm working on the 50% => 66% one.

--

Please remove your pants if you want to send me e-mail.

Lots of good cigar info, the ASC Birthday page, FAQs, vendors and more at

<http://www.ManyFriends.com/Cigars/>

A "great" review is one with the name of the cigar before the review text

in the body of the post. :)

.

**Follow-Ups**:**Re: Math experiment***From:*Winston Castro

**Re: Math experiment***From:*jeremy

**Re: Math experiment***From:*Bart Goddard

**References**:**Math experiment***From:*Bart Goddard

**Re: Math experiment***From:*Miss Elaine Eos

**Re: Math experiment***From:*Bart Goddard

**Re: Math experiment***From:*Miss Elaine Eos

**Re: Math experiment***From:*Bart Goddard

**Re: Math experiment***From:*Miss Elaine Eos

**Re: Math experiment***From:*Bart Goddard

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