Re: Math experiment

On May 28, 11:46 am, Miss Elaine Eos <Misc@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
In article <Xns993E4A2EAA1DAgodda...@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
Bart Goddard <goddar...@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Miss Elaine Eos <Misc@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in news:Misc-
0F1B73.20205727052...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:

* Let's say the car is behind C. Monte shows me B, and I don't know
anything more about the car than I knew before.

And THAT'S my hang-up -- I don't gain any information.

You do gain information: "The car is not behind B", e.g.

But the "no gain in information" part is: no matter WHAT door I pick, it
is possible for Monte to show me another door that does not have a car
behind it (there is only 1 car), and the rules of the game state that he
will do so.

So he does so. Big whoop! Everyone KNEW he was going to do so -- the
rules of the game require it!

Again, I think the game actually is different if we know-for-a-fact that
it's car/washer-drier/goat, because Monte showing you a goat and Monte
showing you a washer-drier DOES tell you something interesting about his
options and therefore what you may have chosen.

But in the [imaginary] car/goat/goat game, I don't see how his showing
you a goat changes anything.

Two computer programs (I won't write them (yet! ;), but let's imagine):

In program #1, the car/goat/goat are shuffled, "contestant" picks a
door, "monte" reveals a goat, "contestant" sticks with chosen door.
Every time.

In program #2, shuffle, contestant picks, monte shows goat, contestant
switches. Every time.

Ah, hell, I'll go whip up the program... <G>

<whip, whip>

Hmmm, I think I have a bug, because I get that the guy who always
switches has a 2/3 chance of GETTING the car (not 50/50.) Here's the
crux of my logic:

* Car is behind a door: 1, 2 or 3
* Contestant picks a door: 1, 2 or 3
* Monte shows a door that is neither car-door nor picked-door (randomly
selecting, if they are the same)
* Contestant #1 always sticks
* Contestant #2 always switches to the door that is neither picked nor
shown.

Did I goof something up?

Code at <http://www.manyfriends.com/Misc/MonteTest.java>, if anyone
cares to review it. It's pretty simple.

--
Please remove your pants if you want to send me e-mail.
Lots of good cigar info, the ASC Birthday page, FAQs, vendors and more at
<http://www.ManyFriends.com/Cigars/>
A "great" review is one with the name of the cigar before the review text
in the body of the post. :)

ELAINE,

GIMME HEAD, GIMME HEAD.

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Advanced Monty Hall Problem with N door and M cars
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  • Re: Math experiment
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  • Re: OT - a game-show which *might* require some thought
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  • Re: Science of choices falls out of research
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