Re: The Earth has six months' worth of oil left -- now what??
- From: trippycamper <Veggywow@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2011 06:59:26 -0800 (PST)
On Feb 22, 9:39 am, Kickin' Ass and Takin' Names
<PopUlist...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Seven international organizations, including the International Energy
Agency, APEC, the United Nations Statistics Division and the
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), have been
keeping public data on global oil production and exports in the name
of transparency in this strategic industry. They call this effort the
Joint Organisations Data Initiative or JODI. The last set of figures
they published said some very disturbing things.http://www.jodidata.org/
As noted by Bloomberg News , the first thing they noted was that in
the month of December, 2010, OPEC's exports dropped 2% as the result
of a 4.9% drop in exports by Saudi Arabia. Word was put that the
shortfall was entirely the result of a rise in internal demand. Yet
that is a staggering rise in demand for only one month's time. However
much Saudi demand impacted their monthly exports, most of that fall
was almost certainly the result of a drop in their overall oil
production.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-19/opec-s-december-oil-exports-...
Such a sharp drop in Saudi oil production in just one month, whether
it was 4.9%, 4% or even 3 %, is of extreme concern because of the path
repeatedly taken by countries who begin producing oil until it
inevitably peaks and declines. Their rate of oil production follows
the path of a bell curve, with a slow initial startup (a low but
increasing oil output), a period of rapidly rising production, a
slowdown in growth which levels off at a peak in their total annual
production, followed by a slow decline or "bumpy" plateau in output
and then precipitous drop to a much lower level that eventually tapers
away into nothing.
What does that long bell curve mean? If Saudi Arabia's overall oil
production is dropping at anything like 3% to 4.9% in a single month,
then her overall production may not only have peaked, but may have
passed over that bump at the top of the bell curve, straight into the
precipitous drop stage of that nation's oil production.
Given that Saudi Arabia has long been the world's largest producer and
exporter of oil, if she has gone over that edge, if a roughly 4.9%
monthly shortfall in output becomes routine, or worse, accelerates,
then global oil production is going to be absolutely hammered as a
result.
There are other permutations to the Saudi story, in particular that
the light, sweet crude produce by her fields, especially the Ghawar
superfield, have a much, much higher Energy Return On Energy Invested
-- EROEI, or the amount of energy you get back in exchange for the
overall amount you spent finding, extracting, refining and shipping
the oil you produce. Unconventional sources, such as Alberta's tar
sands, usually have a very low EROEI, or worse, as in the case of the
"oil shale" in the U.S., an effectively negative one.
Under normal circumstances, all of the above would be an earthshaking
turning point for global oil production.
On the positive side, it's actually the minor story.
The big story is something else mentioned about oil production in the
JODI figures -- total world output fell 14% from a month earlier, with
the shortfall mainly resulting from non-OPEC sources, especially in
Latin America.
Now, the JODI figures cover about 90% of global oil production, and we
have every reason to believe that the remaining 10% of production is
in countries near, at or past their peak in oil production as well.
But leaving that aside, a roughly 14% drop in global oil production in
one month, at these prices (approaching and now over $100-a-barrel) is
devastating.
Especially if it heralds a large number of major, mature oil producers
going over the same cliff that Saudi Arabia seems to be descending.
After all, 14% is devastating, but up to a point, some crashing
producers could see their fall accelerate... until they hit that nice,
calm, tapering-off-to-nothing stage.
What does all this mean? Well, when I said we have six months of oil
left, I wasn't entirely exaggerating. In truth, I think global oil
consumption is about to get conserved dramatically, by price if
nothing else.
Now -- let's look into the future. In financial calculations, the
Rule of 72 works -- that is, if you are earning compound interest,
divide the number 72 by the interest rate and the result is the length
of time it takes for your money to double. For example, is you are
earning 6 percent, 72/6=12 -- your initial investment will have
doubled in 12 years.
Applying this calculation to the fact that world oil output dropped 14
percent in one month, 72/14=5.14 months until the Earth runs out of
oil -- first of August 2011.
Enjoy that summer vacation, folks.
oil compeny scam, oil uzzes up frum below, old wells get filled again,
there is enough oil for next 500000 yearz.
.
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