Forecasts: Northeast Due for Big Hurricane

Forecasts: Northeast Due for Big Hurricane Mon Mar 27, 10:27 PM ET



DOVER, N.H. - New England could be in for a big one. Meteorologists say
conditions - including warmer temperatures in the Atlantic Basin and
cooler temperatures in the Pacific Ocean - are ripe for the Northeast
coast to be hit by a whopper of a hurricane this season.


Ken Reeves, a senior meteorologist at the AccuWeather Center in State
College, Pa., said that when the Pacific is cooler, it "essentially
drives the storm track further to the east in the Atlantic Ocean
basin."

He predicts the East Coast north of the Mid-Atlantic states could see a
Category 3 hurricane, a storm that could resemble the devastating
systems that hit New England between the 1930s and 1950s.

"There are some eerie similarities to the pattern of the 1938
hurricane," he said.

A 1938 storm known as the "The Long Island Express" remains the
region's worst hurricane. Its 121 mph winds gusted to 183 mph and
caused massive flooding, power outages and wind damage throughout the
region, leaving 600 people dead.

During recent decades, New Englanders mostly have experienced only the
remnants of storms that hit other parts of the country, such as
Hurricane Gloria in 1985 and Hurricane Bob in 1991, which brought heavy
rains, localized flooding and power outages.

If a big storm did hit, the New Hampshire coast might be spared the
worst of the damage because it is sheltered compared to areas like Cape
Cod, Portland, Maine, and Long Island, N.Y., Reeves said.

Lourdes Aviles, a Plymouth State University assistant meteorology
professor, said Reeves' forecast sounds right. That New England hasn't
had a strong hurricane in 50 years could signal the region's luck is
running out, she said.

John Jensenius, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service
in Gray, Maine, said his group has been concerned for years that a
strong hurricane could strike New England's coast.

Hurricane activity tends to be cyclical, he said. Every 50 years, a
pattern develops that increases the potential for a major storm. But
that doesn't mean a storm is imminent.

"The chances of one happening this year is no greater than it was last
year," Jensenius said.

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