Babs can't read....

"NObamessiah Occult Train" <NobamaCultists @NObama.org> wrote in
news:dvOdnSQotfnEfA3VnZ2dnUVZ_uGdnZ2d@xxxxxxxxxxx:


"A Veteran" <georgewkspam@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:georgewkspam-51C57B.14364530072008@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Ita

It's working

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind
by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over
Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup
Poll. http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/


Gallup also released a tracking poll earlier today showing Obama enjoying
his largest lead (48-40) in months. To most sane individuals, that absurd
12-point discrepancy--the polls were conducted by the same firm, after
all, over the same two-day period (July 25-27)--is reason enough to
refrain from putting any stock whatsoever in individual opinion surveys

The same Gallup/USA poll had a slightly larger registered 900 voter
sample that has Obama leading 47-44, which wasn't cited in your article.
By dropping 16% of Obama registered voters via the likely voter screen,
with such 'unlikely' voters including first time registrants, and only 2%
of McCain's registered voters, the gallup lv model gives McCain a 49-45
lead. In other words, the Gallup likely voter model decided that Obama
voters were eight times more likely than McCain voters not to show up at
the polls. As others have noted, this is an absurd result in an election
where poll after poll has shown that greater enthusiasm is on the
Democratic side. Are likely voter models that weigh against first time
voters, and in many cases also against minority voters, likely to be
accurate in this election?

.....Republicans and Republican leaners have to be so revved up to vote
against Obama that they turn out in droves. Otherwise--as the surveys of
registered voters show--Obama wins.

http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/07/28/poll-
position.aspx
.

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