Israel has a year to stop Iran bomb, warns ex-spy
- From: jose <josefsoplar@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2008 16:49:56 -0700 (PDT)
Israel has a year to stop Iran bomb, warns ex-spy
By Carolynne Wheeler in Tel Aviv and Tim Shipman in Washington
Last updated: 5:08 PM BST 29/06/2008
A former head of Mossad has warned that Israel has 12 months in which
to destroy Iran's nuclear programme or risk coming under nuclear
attack itself. He also hinted that Israel might have to act sooner if
Barack Obama wins the US presidential election.
Shabtai Shavit, an influential adviser to the Israeli parliament's
defence and foreign affairs committee, told The Sunday Telegraph that
time was running out to prevent Iran's leaders getting the bomb.
Mr Shavit, who retired from the Israeli intelligence agency in 1996,
warned that he had no doubt Iran intended to use a nuclear weapon once
it had the capability, and that Israel must conduct itself
accordingly.
"The time that is left to be ready is getting shorter all the time,"
he said in an interview.
Mr Shavit, 69, who was deputy director of Mossad when Israel bombed
the Osirak nuclear facility in Iraq in 1981, added: "As an
intelligence officer working with the worst-case scenario, I can tell
you we should be prepared. We should do whatever necessary on the
defensive side, on the offensive side, on the public opinion side for
the West, in case sanctions don't work. What's left is a military
action."
The "worst-case scenario, he said, is that Iran may have a nuclear
weapon within "somewhere around a year".
As speculation grew that Israel was contemplating its own air strikes,
Iran's military said it might hit the Jewish state with missiles and
stop Gulf oil exports if it came under attack. Israel "is completely
within the range of the Islamic republic's missiles," said Mohammed
Ali Jafari, head of the feared Revolutionary Guard. "Our missile power
and capability are such that the Zionist regime cannot confront it."
More than 40 per cent of all globally traded oil passes through the 35-
mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, putting tankers entering or leaving the
Gulf at risk from Iranian mines, rockets and artillery, and Mr
Jafari's comments were the clearest signal yet that Iran intends to
use this leverage in the nuclear dispute.
Despite offering incentives, the West has failed to persuade Iran to
stop enriching uranium. Israeli officials believe the diplomatic
process is useless and have been pressing President Bush to launch air
strikes before he leaves office on January 20 next year.
They apparently fear that the chances of winning American approval for
an air attack will be drastically reduced if the Democratic nominee
wins the election. Mr Obama advocates talks with the regime in Tehran
rather than military action.
That view was echoed by Mr Shavit, who said: "If [Republican candidate
John] McCain gets elected, he could really easily make a decision to
go for it. If it's Obama: no. My prediction is that he won't go for
it, at least not in his first term in the White House."
He warned that while it would be preferable to have American support
and participation in a strike on Iran, Israel will not be afraid to go
it alone.
"When it comes to decisions that have to do with our national security
and our own survival, at best we may update the Americans that we are
intending or planning or going to do something. It's not a
precondition, [getting] an American agreement," he said.
.
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