A Nominee? Or a Debacle?
- From: jose <josefsoplar@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 1 Mar 2008 09:20:34 -0800 (PST)
A Nominee? Or a Debacle?
By BOB HERBERT
When does a dandy fight become an ugly brawl?
For the Democrats, perhaps on Tuesday.
If Barack Obama wins in either Texas or Ohio, the race for the
nomination will effectively be over. At that point the Clintons, if
they have any regard for the fortunes of the party, will be duty-bound
to graciously fold their tents and try to rally their supporters
behind a candidate who will be stepping into a firestorm of hostility
from the other side.
If Hillary Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio, the Democrats will need a
trainload of aspirin and a shrink.
The superdelegates currently sprinting toward Obama would suddenly
look over their shoulders and wonder what happened to his O-mentum.
The Clintons would declare themselves (yet again) the Comeback Kids,
although they would still be behind in delegates. They would continue
their push to have the Michigan and Florida delegations seated. They
would step up their attacks on the Obama forces with understandable
glee. And they would use whatever persuasive powers they could muster
to push the idea with party regulars that Senator Obama is
unelectable.
That is a scenario guaranteed to infuriate the Obama true-believers.
If Senator Clinton managed to secure the nomination under those
circumstances, it would open deep wounds in the party that would be
very difficult to heal.
There is a third scenario: Senator Clinton wins just one of the big
ones on Tuesday but decides to hang on rather than gracefully step
aside, hoping that some blunder, or some other unforeseen force -- a
news event, a scandal -- causes the Obama effort to implode. That would
also cause bad feelings that would be difficult to assuage.
(If Senator Obama wins Ohio and Texas, there's nothing more to talk
about. He's the nominee.)
The Republicans, who had nothing going for them in this election, who
had a weak field of candidates and were on the wrong side of virtually
every major issue, are beginning to feel a bit like Lazarus.
Democratic voters were courageous enough to put two candidates at the
head of their line of potential nominees who have built-in political
disadvantages. Party unity and a strong message are essential to
overcoming those disadvantages. The longer the Clinton-Obama fight
goes on, and the more bitter it gets, the better it is for the G.O.P.
In recent days both Clinton and Obama supporters have been predicting
a long and possibly brutal fight if Senator Obama does not lock up the
nomination on Tuesday. A Clinton advocate, who asked not to be
identified because he didn't want to be seen as wavering in public,
said: "I don't see how this gets resolved if she wins both Ohio and
Texas. She needs blowouts to overcome Obama's lead in delegates, but I
don't see that happening.
"On the other hand, she has a case to make if she heads toward the
convention having won New York, California, New Jersey, Texas, Ohio
and maybe Pennsylvania. But if she's still behind in the delegates,
how do you give her the nomination?"
The danger for the Democrats is a standoff steeped in rancor. The
Republicans, assuming Senator Obama will be the nominee, are already
having a field day. Those claiming the high road are mocking his
foreign policy positions while the lowlifes are making sport of his
name, suggesting he is unpatriotic, inferring that he is a Muslim and
trying to drive a wedge between him and Jewish voters.
Mr. Obama seems at the moment like someone standing alone against the
attacks. Since he hasn't secured the nomination, he doesn't have the
biggest names in the party rallying to his defense. His supporters are
busy battling the Clintons. (The same would be the case for Senator
Clinton if she were the front-runner but hadn't wrapped up the
nomination.)
A further complication for the Democrats is the possibility that the
results in Texas -- which has a ridiculously complex primary-caucus
setup -- will be unclear. If Senator Clinton wins Ohio and there's a
battle royal in Texas (both sides are prepared for a legal fight), the
McCain forces will pop the corks on another round of Champagne.
Democratic voters are tremendously excited about this presidential
election. In addition to the obvious concerns about war and the
economy, voters in both the Clinton and Obama camps believe that some
of the fundamental values of the United States are at risk. They are
worried, for example, about the undermining of governmental checks and
balances, the erosion of civil liberties and the makeup of the Supreme
Court.
Tuesday's elections may decide the nominee. But if they don't, the
wisest heads in the party will be faced with the awesome task of
preventing a train wreck that would ruin what was supposed to have
been a banner year.
.
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