Re: Free Wireless Network Access

On 25 Dec 2005 18:40:10 -0800, birarai@xxxxxxxxx wrote:

>sounds like you're a really expert on networking.

Not really. I just write a bit on technology topics. I've been wrong
in the past and will probably be wrong in the future. Make your own
decision on the viability of a technology based on how it works, not
what others declare to be the next big thing. For example, in the
early 1980's, every pundit and expert declared that the OSI model
networking products would inevitably replace the obviously inadequate
and flawed TCP/IP networking products. According to the experts, we
all should now be using X.400 email addresses and X.500 directory
services. That didn't happen. Beware of listening to experts.

>I'm a software
>developer the arena of computer networking is not my greatest strength.
> What furture direction do you think computer networking will take
>next?

That's easy. Consortiums, conglomerations, collaborations, and
conglomerations.

Computer networks will assume combinations and permutations of
existing technologies. That will be driven by SDR (software defined
radio) also known as cognitive radio technology. A CPU inside
everything will be able to communicate with just about anything else
by simply emulating its protocols and technology. Your PDA will be
able to talk to your kitchen stove via your kitchen refrigerator, each
using its own proprietary protocol. Your TV remote control can send a
token to your media center, which will translate the token into
whatever protocol is necessary to talk to your garage door opener.

The road to this Nirvana will have some pot holes in it. For example,
all the PDA phone and smart phone vendors are building 802.11b/g into
their instruments, while cellular vendors are turning *OFF* features
in order to enhance their existing overpriced services. Why should
the consumer be allowed to use Bluetooth to transfer their photos from
the cell phone to their desktop when the vendors overpriced BREW based
service can do the same thing. Why should the consumer be allowed to
use VoIP over free 802.11 when they can be billed by the minute for
airtime over cellular. Why should the consumer be allowed to access
the internal GPS directly, when they can pay for location based
services. There will need to be a shakeout and it won't be pleasant
for the technology vendors.

For home and office networking, single digit improvements just won't
sell. With cheap gigabit LAN's, we have all the bandwidth we need for
about the next 10 years. Going to the new 10Gigabit ethernet will be
useful for the data centers and backhauls, but not for commodity
networking. UWB (ultra wide band) for distributing local wireless
live video will be a big hit, primarily because there's no alternative
way to do the same thing. Mesh networks will be a big thud because
there are lots of ways to do it better and because it doesn't offer a
large enough benefit over the other ways. I don't have a clue on
WiMax but suspect that any technology that has only 50MHz in 3.6GHz,
can only be deployed in limited non-metro areas, and competes directly
with heavily entrenched telcos, will have a limited uptake.

I can go on and on but I find it boring. I suggest you read about the
technology and first determine if it will function as expected. It is
not necessary for it to be the superior technology as adequate
mediocrity is a big seller in consumer electronics. It just needs to
be functional. Next, determine if it will scale well into a mass
market. Failure to scale will prevent mass deployments. Last, figure
out if the GUM (great unwashed masses) is willing to part with their
money for the product on a mass scale. Never mind the early adopters.
Is there a mass market? It doesn't have to be economical or cheap.
That can come later. If it passes these tests, you have a winner. If
it fails at any point, it will not be the next big thing.

If you're not up on wireless politics and technology, I suggest you
read through the opinions of Andrew Seybold at:
http://www.outlook4mobility.com/commentary.htm
Most deal with the cellular industry, but there's quite a bit on wi-fi
and similar technologies worth reading. I don't agree with everything
but it's still worth reading.

--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
.

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