Re: Seiko Watches not from Japan?

On 2008-01-13, Alex W. <ingilt@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

<snip>
And you don't even need trust in your trading partner. What is essential is
trust in the system of international laws, conventions, standards and above
all the passel of Bretton Woods institutions such as the IMF and the World
Bank which enables global commerce.

I think that is a bit naive. The basis of commercial trust is overt
self-interest. We do business with those people whose self-interest is
known; we can trust them to act according to their own needs. It's the
outfits that are covert in these regards that are problematic. Track
records of successful transactions don't yield the probability that
future transactions will also be successful; they yield insights into
the self-interest of the trading entity.

Laws are made in the interest of the law-makers, and are flouted to the
extent that doing so is profitable, which is why legal departments are
of prominent importance.

<snip>
That is a simplification, IMO. For sure, the US and the Middle East are
god-ridden, but none of the other major or soon-to-be major powers are
notably religious. Indeed, the Chinese are actively suppressing religion
even now.

Irrelevant. What is happening on the ground is what counts. As I said,
religion is an excuse. I could provide a massively documented argument
for this assertion, but that is not topical here. The problem is that
religion is arguably the least well understood of all human creations,
and so it can operate with impunity where virtually all else could not
escape critical attention.

Which is why the War of Religions rolls on unchallenged, and it is a
World War: It is fought all over the globe.

<snip>
If "self-sustainment" is another word for "autarky", forget it. This is a
pipedream. No nation can sustain any sort of economy or civilisation
beyond, perhaps, the level of the mid-19th century without massive trade and
reliance on outside sources of raw materials.

So? The 19th century is much more advanced than the period to which the
Medievalists would have us reach. Actually, it would not be that bad,
at least in the U.S. Elsewhere, trust may well not suffer such that
trade cannot go forward. It'd be hard on China, though; they still
don't have the sustainable brain-power to maintain a thriving culture,
although they aren't that far from being so.

The other point not considered here is that trust between cultures can
be broken, but it's much more difficult to do so within the same
culture. As much warfare as Europe has seen over the millennia, it has
continued to thrive remarkably, but again, that argument is not topical
here.

<snip>
The point is, do you really want to be a champion producer/manufacturer?
The US cannot compete in terms of raw materials, cheap labour or even
location (exceptions being highly specialised products and goods which don't
travel well). The one undisputable advantage is knowledge. It is know-how
which drives Western wealth creation, not brawn; this will become ever
clearer over time as the current system of world trade which is very much
skewed in our favour will shift to take into account the economic power of
emerging nations.

You'd be surprised how well the U.S. could manage. It's got enough raw
materials readily available to use. The problem has been one of
profitability; cheaper to import than to manufacture. With the dollar
tanking, U.S. export is rising, which means we still have the
capability.

There is no question about knowledge, however. That is what has driven
this country! Where it is possible to freely exercise one's knowledge,
it will be exercised, and will draw such knowledge from everywhere. We
are well endowed with materials and location, but it is what we can do
with it that has kept us on top.

The current system of world trade has this country teetering on the
brink of financial ruin, and it has been there for a long time now. Our
momentum has kept us ahead of everyone else, but they are catching up
now and the U.S. is now finding itself sinking under its own debt, for
one of many examples. Will something be done? Quite probably. It is
in the interest of too many others that the U.S. remain in its current
position.

If the U.S. called in its own loans, it would make a real difference,
but it can't do that for the very same reason the other countries can't
call in the U.S. But everyone knows that, of course. The fact is that
the global economy is beyond the control of any one entity, and arguably
beyond the control of any currently conceivable collaboration of such
entities.

In any case, this argument could go on intermidably, but we should
probably just agree to disagree, and get back to horlogerie...

Longfellow


.

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