BLOOMBERG INVESTOR POLL - OBAMA VS ROMNEY 2012

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-26/obama-wins-in-global-poll-showing-investors-resist-newt-gingrich.html

Obama Wins in Global Poll Showing Investors Resist Gingrich
By Mike Dorning - Thu Jan 26 16:45:17 GMT 2012

U.S. investors are rooting for Mitt Romney and those outside the country
are for Barack Obama  . Newt Gingrich  is generating little
enthusiasm anywhere.

The expectation in markets of every region is that Obama will be
re-elected president in November, an outlook shared by 72 percent of
respondents worldwide in a quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of 1,209
Bloomberg customers who are investors, traders or analysts, conducted
Jan. 23-24.

"The recent improvements of the economy will help Obama's
re-election"? along with "the lack of coalition among the
Republicans," says Jason Vieira, an international analyst for the
brokerage firm Cruzeiro do Sul Corretora in Sao Paulo  and a poll
respondent.

As U.S. growth strengthens, global investors are warming to Obama's
economic stewardship, with 40 percent of them optimistic about the
impact of his policies on the business climate, up from 30 percent who
said so just seven weeks ago.

In a potential election match-up between Obama, 50, and Romney, 64, a
former private equity executive, global respondents are split, with 41
percent choosing each as better for the world economy. U.S. investors
sided 3-to-1 with the Republican and those outside the U.S. 2-to-1 with
Obama.

"Customers outside the U.S. not only know President Obama better than
Mitt Romney  , they like him a lot better, and they have shown that
since the beginning of the Bloomberg Global Poll,"? says J. Ann
Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the Des Moines  , Iowa  , company
that conducted the poll for Bloomberg.

Backing Obama

Faced with a choice between the Democratic incumbent and Republican
Gingrich, 68, on who would be better for the world economy, global
respondents back Obama 52 percent to 25 percent.

Those in the U.S. give Gingrich a 44 percent plurality against 35
percent for Obama with 21 percent unable to tell how they would resolve
the dilemma.

Poll participants are divided over whether Romney's private equity
experience better equips him to manage the U.S. economy  from the Oval
Office. Forty-five percent say it would, compared with 41 percent who
say it wouldn't. U.S. respondents place greater weight on Romney's
investment background, with almost two-thirds of them considering it an
asset.

"Romney's financial bona fides might seem like a natural fit for these
investors, yet he has not convinced them his stewardship would be better
for the global economy than the current president,"? Selzer says.

Attack Ads

On the campaign trail, Romney has stressed his background as co-founder
of Boston-based Bain Capital LLC to claim competence to strengthen the
U.S. economy.

Allies of Gingrich sponsored a television advertising campaign attacking
the impact of leveraged buyouts that Romney managed throughout his years
at the company.

Even as poll respondents are split over whether experience in private
equity is a credential for the presidency, 7 of 10 say the industry's
business practices generally have a beneficial impact on the economy.

Investors in all regions consider the tax rate  Romney has paid  on
his income too low, a view held by two-thirds of respondents worldwide
and 56 percent in the U.S.

While Romney didn't release tax returns showing he paid a 13.9 percent
rate on income of $21.6 million in 2010 until the second day of the
poll, he had already said he paid a rate of about 15 percent.
Changing Assessment

Investors have narrowly reversed their assessment of the impact of an
Obama re-election on U.S. financial markets since the last poll in
December. His re-election is viewed as favorable by 44 percent against
40 percent unfavorable. In the last poll, a second Obama term was
considered beneficial to the markets by 38 percent of respondents
compared with 44 percent who said it would be a drag.

Since the last poll was completed Dec. 6, estimates for U.S. growth have
increased, unemployment has declined and the benchmark Standard & Poor's
500 stock index had risen 5.4 percent as of the market's close in New
York  yesterday.

The median forecast for fourth-quarter growth is 3.1 percent, up from
1.8 percent in the previous quarter, according a Bloomberg survey of
economists.
Forty-eight percent of poll respondents predict the U.S. will be among
the world's best-performing markets this year, the highest rating for
the country since the poll began in 2009 and more than twice that of
Brazil and China  , the second-ranked markets.

Giving Obama Credit

Respondents are divided by region in granting Obama credit for the
economy's improved performance. Seventy-three percent of those in the
U.S. say he doesn't deserve credit; 54 percent of respondents outside
the U.S. say he does.

The general opinion of Obama has improved, with 51 percent of global
respondents viewing him favorably compared with 48 who said so in
December. Still, only 27 percent of those in the U.S. have a positive
opinion of the president.
Investors are split about evenly on Romney, 38 percent favorable against
40 percent unfavorable and 22 percent with no opinion. Among those in
the U.S., 61 percent say they like the former Massachusetts governor.

Fifty-nine percent of poll respondents express a negative opinion of
Gingrich versus 17 percent with a positive opinion. U.S. respondents
have an even more unfavorable view of the onetime U.S. House speaker: 69
percent say they don't like him.
Investors view members of Congress from both parties unfavorably.
Sixty-four percent have a negative opinion of congressional Republicans
and 58 percent a negative view of congressional Democrats.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Dorning in Washington  at
mdorning@xxxxxxxxxxxxx  .
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Komarow at
skomarow1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx

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