Re: How much is the Hallowed Helm worth to you?
- From: Brian Westley <westley@xxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 07 Oct 2009 09:29:28 -0500
cryptoguy <treifamily@xxxxxxxxx> writes:
Yes, I know that. I stated so in the OP. I'm going to be losing sleep
to hit the innkeepers as frequently as possible. It's a 1.3% drop.
Assuming I can hit it 8 times in a day, (I do sleep, and can't do it
from work), I have about a 10% chance of seeing one on any given day.
It's a 7% chance from the horseman. In a group of 5, that's about a
35% chance a day. My chances of getting it from the horseman are much
better than from the treat bags (1/hour) or surprise packages (1/day).
Assuming those drop rates, a group of 5 is about 30% a day
1-(1-0.07)^5 = .304311631
Over 14 days, the chance from 8*14 treat bags is .769048342,
about 3/4 of a chance. The chance of seeing it at least once
in 5*14 HH runs is .993779772 (no telling if you win it, though).
If you double your treat bags on the weekends, adding 32 attempts,
the chance goes from 77% to about 85%.
I should be able to do 9 tries a day without losing sleep.
5 PM to midnight is 8 tries right there, and you can do one
in the morning before leaving for work.
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