Re: Microsoft racing ahead in consoles war
- From: Doug Jacobs <djacobs@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 16 May 2006 01:01:54 -0000
Why are companies predicting that the Wii is going to be the third
selling game system? It is cheaper than all of the above, and is a
console people would have little problem adding as a second one,
particularly if it ends up $250 or lower. The Wii could end up having
the largest installed based after it is all said and done.
I think they're looking at inertia. Game Cube was 3rd, and the Wii -
while innovative - hasn't shown any signs of breaking out of the niche
that the GC created. I think before the PS3 solidified, analysts were
expecting Microsoft to grab an early lead, which would be steadily ground
down by Sony after the PS3 launched.
Now...I don't think they know what's going to happen. Yeah, I know some
where predicting a total victory by Microsoft, but let's be honest here,
most analysts barely understand the companies they represent...
Microsoft is likely to build a large lead by the time the Wii comes out
Undoubtedly. The PS3 will sell through its initial shipments, but will be
in short supply otherwise - not that I expect there to be an outstanding
demand for a $600 console. Plentiful 360s, a good selection of games, and
Sony-induced sticker shock, should all add up to a very merry Christmas
for Microsoft. That's pretty obvious. Only Nintendo surprise-launching
the Wii this fall could throw a kink into that plan, since Nintendo has
traditionally managed to launch with more hardware than either Sony or
Microsoft. But even the Wii isn't going to steal Microsoft's thunder.
Sony's true race will start Q1 2007 - and they're going to have quite a
bit of track to make up.
Just remember, the console wars aren't a sprint - they're a marathon.
And with Sony's seemingly unorthodox strategy so far, it's going to either
be a brilliant come-from-behind victory...or a massacre.
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