Re: What What What ???

matt14701 <matt14701@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Microsoft defenders are still trying to blame this on "huge demand," but- at
some point- one has to acknwoledge that the launch strategy has been/is a
failure (this doesn't mean that the product itself will be a failure). This
is a disappointment for the kid on the street who just wants an XBox360, or
anyone who owns Microsoft stock (don't laugh- if you own any mutual fund,
you likely own Microsoft stock).

"Huge demand" doesn't mean you're selling out of 100s of units. The fact
remains that Microsoft has yet to ship the 360 in great numbers. Has
Microsoft even managed to ship enough units to cover the pre-orders in the
US yet?

As for the impact on Microsoft's stock - it'll be negligble. The revenue
numbers from the upcoming release of yet another version of Office (that
you KNOW Microsoft thinks we all need) and Windows Vista (yet another
useless upgrade) will totally drown out anything the 360 does. The 360
could totally tank, and Microsoft's stock will STILL go up.

Also, this can't be blamed on the fact that there's new technology inside
the box. There are thousands of other products with multiple complex parts
that are able to be made available immediatly affter a mass production
lauch. Apple can introduce Intel chips into their computers fo the first
time, re-code 80% of their software, and make things available 6 months
before the industry is expecting them. When I hear about a new Ipod,
someone I know usually already picked one up.

That's not exactly correct. The Xbox does use a new CPU - and as anyone
involved with chip manufacturing will tell you, it takes some time to work
out the kinks and problems before you can start supplying a good steady
stream.

Intel did not make a new chip just for Apple - it's using existing chips
that have already gone through their growing pains, as it were. One of
the reason that any new chip from Intel costs so much is partly due to the
fact that they aren't able to produce them in large numbers yet.

The two markets are different as well. Consider the generic PC market.
Sure, you COULD buy the absolute bleeding edge chip, which gives you a
whole 2-500Mhz speed improvement over the next best chip for $1000, or you
could buy a few models cheaper, save several hundred dollars, and still
have a fully functional computer. Consoles, however, aren't the same.
They can only use one specific processor, and if there's problems
producing enough of them, then you're going to have shortages.

However, that doesn't excuse Microsoft from its current debacle. Such
manufacturing issues would have been clear to Microsoft as early as 6 to 9
months BEFORE the 360 was planned to hit the shelves. After all, it takes
time to re-tool or create a new manufacturing line for the chips, not to
mention that you'd want to start production on your critical components as
early as possible - especially if there's only one source for them.
Microsoft probably knew they were facing a shortage when they announced
their initial distribution numbers to the stores - in other words, they
lied. Then to make matters worse, they waited until practically the last
moment to tell the stores that they were only going to be able to ship a
small portion of the original number they promised. This lead to the now
well documented outrage by consumers who had paid for a 360, only to be
denied on release day when Microsoft failed to deliver on their promises.

Oh well, it's possible that Sony will screw up worse that MS. Maybe
Nintendo will really end up being the winner through this console generation
cycle.

Well, Sony spun the PS2 chip shortage into free publicity for the PS2.
However, I don't think they can get away with it a second time. For one
thing, there will be too many who remember being angry at Sony for the PS2
shortage, and now the 360 shortage. Furthermore, it would be a slap in
Microsoft's face if Sony managed to launch the PS3 with greater numbers
and faster restocking. In fact, Sony practically HAS to do this,
otherwise the 360 - which will be over its supply problems - will totally
crush the PS3 during its first Christmas.
.

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