Re: xflop three-shitty = fragmentation for xflop market + loss of overall user base (customers)

"Bag o' ***" scrawled:
>At worst, the launch was botched and that is at worst. Analysts are now
>reporting being worried the lack of xbox 360 launch sales is
>going to seriously affect the December bottom line for the overall
>video gaming numbers.

Fixed: But where are your sources for this assumtion that you have made?

>
>I seem to have serious problems understanding some fundamental
>concepts.

Fixed.

> There is no way the original XBOX market goes anywhere
>except down from here and it has already shown clear signs of
>slowing

True, but that's true of any console during the few months after it's
succsessor was launched.


>, to the point of almost drying up completely almost
>overnight.

It sold close to 200,000 still during the time the 360 was on sale. That
is not drying up overnight by any means.

In fact, games are STILL in development for the original XBOX as even if
only 10% of the market is still active, it is still a large number of
sales potential.

> Yes, the 10 million in NA don't go away but it also
>conversely does not mean that they stay active. Most people are not
>like you and keep a console museum in their living room. As the new
>comes in, the old gets shoved in the closet. So, now, the existing
>install base goes into deep freeze (game sales way down) with the new
>unit at a limited percentage of the previous install base in comparison
>= low game sales numbers for quite some time.

And yet the ENTIRE industry went down 20% according to NPD. That is not
just XBOX games, as I doubt they ammount to 20% of games sales.

No, it's THE ENTIRE MARKET, PSP, PC, DS, GBA, PS2, PSone etc.


>
>Microsoft knew this transition was going to be very tricky and very
>critical.

True - wont fault you on that
> They hoped for a spectacular launch with huge game
>title sales and a breakout mega-hit title to make the bridge across the
>gap.

Well, they knew how many they could make so their predictions of 1st day
sell out and limited supply thereafter were bang on the dollar.



> None of that happened. Instead, you have a very underwhelming
>launch with mediocre sales numbers and most titles being reviewed as
>'bleh' by the people that bought them.

Over a million titles sold to 300,000 odd people. That's spectacular.


>
>"According to several analysts, sales estimates for the system's first
>week come in at nearly 330,000 units -- a strong start, but not as
>strong as even the original Xbox, which moved more than 500,000 units
>in its first week."

Nice quote, but out of context. THe original XBOX didnt launch in any
other country for another few months. Oh, and by the way, the world does
not stop at the west and east coast of the USA.

There's this little continent to the west of you known as Eruope.

Less than a week after the XBOX 360 launched in your little island, we
got it too.

Guess what? Over 300,000 shipped, all sold out.

Now wait - that's 600,000 sold between November 22 and December 2nd.

That's every single machine they made, sold in what is effectively a
fortnight.

Given there was more than one shipment, albeit in limited quantities, in
north america after the inital launch, a few thousand units could be
added.

So in tital, in 10 days they shifted 625-630k units.

That's rather more than the 500,000 sold in the same period for the
XBOX.
>

>Some people are calling this Dreamcast 2 but it isn't even that good.

Oh they would. They are Phony Fangays like you.

>Dreamcast had an existing install base of 9 million when the
>Playstation 2 came out. That huge lead was no help.

Two totally different companies with two totally different approaches to
marketing.

Sega had huge financial problems and had no choice but to quit the
market, no EA, their online strategy was too soon to be a real killer
app.

Microsoft has deep, deep pockets, and has every intention of using them.

Hence the XBOX never made a profit for them, as they just piled on more
and more R&D.

They will only quit the market if nobody is buying their prodcts.

close to 1 million in less than a month is not 'no sales'.


> On the other hand,
>the Playstation 2 had an existing install base of about 3 million when
>the original XBOX came out.

No, it was closer to 20 million.

The Playstation 2 kept selling more and
>more units and the XBOX just kept falling further and further behind.

The PS2 had 20 million in peoples homes, had far more 3rd party support,
and a existing brand.

The XBOX has picked up and made a brand for itself and is now a sellout
success!


>This time around, it looks very, very good for the XBOX 360.

Fixed.

>The whole hope was that it would have a huge existing install base
>before the PS3 shows up and it is just a foregone conclusion that is
>not going to happen now.

Utter crap.

The 360 has at least 700,000 in peoples homs now. There are a further
300,000 on sale right now, as widely reported, and they are already
being snapped up in no time.

OK, some stores have a few in stock, but there are plenty more on the
way now they dont have to worry about stocking Japan.

Europe is getting a steady trickle of units too, so they are well on
track to selling over a million by the end of the 1st month on sale.

Nobody has pointed out wether the XBOX took a month to sell 1milion, or
wether after the 1st 500,000 sold, did the sales continue at that
pace...

Of course they didnt.

The fact is, Demand is very very high as evidenced by the stupid prices
on Ebay, people WANT this console.

As you know, the PS3 is no more powerful than the 360, but the
perception, based on speculation and misinformation in the press, is
that it somehow will blow the 360 away.

That's partly down to Microsoft's mismanagement of the Hype factor. They
didnt release flash movies of fake in-game footage, or hire Kojima to
make a flash scripted Sequence.

However, now that the real games are starting to be shown, people will
start to realise - much to their joy/dismay (delete as apropriate), that
comments made by the likes of Kojima, EA, and other developers, that
there really is not much between the two -are correct, then the 360 will
continue to sell even better.

Get with it Bliggy, you're on the Titanic and ther's no liferaft left
for you...




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