Re: Critics Slam Leno:
- From: "kathie8@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <kathie8@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2009 11:09:11 -0700 (PDT)
Nearly 18 Million for Jay. Does It Matter?
Last night, the first broadcast of The Jay Leno Show drew a whopping
17.7 million viewers, many of them with their original teeth. As the
guy who wrote the story with the "Future of TV" cover line, I should
probably just leave it at that and call it a day. But let's take a
look at what does and doesn't matter about that number, in ways that
are both good and bad for Jay:
* First, the obvious. It was a great number, surpassing the public
guesses I'd seen out there yesterday (and probably surpassing NBC's
expectations)—but it should have been a great number. It was Jay's
first show; he's one of the most well-known figures on TV; he had
little original-broadcast competition; he had a three-month,
multimillion-dollar promotional campaign; and his sails were filled
with the fortuitous winds of Hurricane Kanye. That set of
circumstances is only going to happen once.
* The demos were not as good. I kid about that "original teeth" line,
but preliminary numbers indicate that about 60 percent of his viewers
were above 50 (and thus ignored by advertisers in setting rates), a
very high percentage. When it's a matter of Conan losing to David
Letterman in overall viewers, NBC will adamantly tell you the only
number they care about is the 18 to 49 demographic number. I await the
press release to see whether that remains the case.
* On the other hand: it beats 7.7 million. Even if there's nowhere to
go but down, that's still a lot of people sampling the show. A
surprisingly low number would have been a bigger deal than a
surprisingly high number, and it would have signaled a long two years
for NBC.
* It doesn't matter if the critics don't like it. As should by obvious
by now. If you read the reviews, you'll see that TV critics did not
care for The Jay Leno Show any more than his Tonight Show, which it so
closely resembled. That did not stop him from winning his timeslot for
the past 15 years.
* It doesn't matter if you don't like it, either. I exaggerate, but
only slightly. It cannot be overemphasized that Leno's show is first
and foremost a cost-cutting move. It's a fifth or less expensive than
airing scripted dramas; therefore, what would be a bad number for Law
& Order would still leave NBC in the black on Jay. Now, Jay's ratings
can't be too bad; if he cripples Conan, or inspires a mass revolt by
affiliates with a low lead-in for the local news, that's disaster. But
the normal physics of ratings do not apply.
Bottom line: Jay's ratings will drop a lot from here—again, remember
Katie Couric—let alone next week, when his show is on against network
originals. On the other hand, his show is a rare and powerful
creation: a TV show that is not just critic-proof but even ratings-
proof—or, at least, ratings-resistant.
Jay will lose a lot of viewers; that's a given. But at least he's got
a lot to lose.
http://tunedin.blogs.time.com/2009/09/15/nearly-18-million-for-jay-does-it-matter/?iid=tsmodule
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