Re: Week of March 3rd Time Wasting Thread

On Mar 8, 6:10 pm, Donz5 <do...@xxxxxxx> wrote:
On Mar 5, 12:59 am, Donz5 <do...@xxxxxxx> wrote:



On Mar 5, 12:55 am, Brady <watercl...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Donz wrote:
On Mar 5, 12:33 am, Brady <watercl...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Donz wrote:
On Mar 5, 12:01 am, Brady <watercl...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Donz wrote:
but, will we really know what reality is until this summer? I have said
since 1992 that even those who call him "Slick Willie" underestimate him.
(yes, I believe that, no matter who the frontperson is, it's the same
machine.)
Yeah, I think we do know the reality. Jonathan Alter wrote about it
here:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240/output/print
The bottom line: Even if Clinton sweeps the remaining contests, she
_still_ won't catch up to Obama.
But what of the 'super delegate' count?
Brady
Plurality breeds majority. Should Obama retain his lead, which he
will, the superdelegates will be bound to support him.
If they don't, then Bill has it right -- it'll be ugly indeed, and
McCain will thus be guaranteed the presidency.
OK, I just read the piece. He makes a convincing case. (I'm trusting his
math. Or, to be more precise: I'm trusting his use of the *Slate*
Delegate Calculator.) He even gives her generous margins of victory --
'improbable' margins, as he puts it -- in his scenario. The bottom line
is: to catch up in the pledged delegates count, she would not only have
to *run the board* -- she would have to win them all by *really* wide
margins.

Brady

That's right -- this has all been gamed out.

12:50 AM ET: with 75% of the votes counted, CNN is now projecting that
Senator Clinton will win the Texas Democratic primary.

Her campaign will now claim that she's 'The Comeback Kid.' They'll say
she now has the momentum.

Brady

But she won't have the delegates. Which is what they had earlier, and
accurately, claimed was most important.

Clinton will have won Texas, but Obama will have won more delegates in
that state and make up for Clinton's Ohio net gain (RI and Vt canceled
each other out).

Quick followup:

http://us-elections.suite101.com/article.cfm/clinton_wins_ohio_and_texas

... Using delegate data from CNN, CBS, AP, Secretaries of State for
Ohio & Texas, the following delegate count is reached from Tuesday's
voting: Clinton won 190 to Obama's 181 delegates. Like in Nevada,
Clinton won the popular vote in Texas but lost the delegate count: 98
delegates for Obama to Clinton's 95.

Ohio - 76 Clinton / 66 Obama
Rhodes Island - 13 Clinton / 8 Obama
Texas - 65 Clinton / 61 Obama
Texas Caucus* - 30 Clinton / 37 Obama
Vermont - 6 Clinton / 9 Obama

[me: Tuesday's totals: Clinton: 190, Obama: 181; total net gain for
Clinton: 9 delegates]

The resultant Obama/Clinton delegate ratio, after the election, is
1567 to 1466. This is an insignificant (0.401%) gain of delegates for
Clinton (48.335% now to 47.934% before the 4 state elections.)

Can you give another update that includes Wyoming's delegates? Obama
won with a considerable margin.


Kate

.

Relevant Pages

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  • Re: Week of March 3rd Time Wasting Thread
    ... But what of the 'super delegate' count? ... Should Obama retain his lead, ... I'm trusting his use of the *Slate* ... 'improbable' margins, as he puts it -- in his scenario. ...
    (alt.fan.letterman)
  • =?iso-8859-1?Q?Buckwheat_Claims_Wide=2C_Wide_Lead_as_Hitlary_Scrambles_?= =?iso-8859-
    ... Obama Camp Claims 'Wide, Wide Lead' as Clinton Scrambles to Rebound ... Barack Obama's campaign claimed Wednesday that the race for the Democratic nomination is not even close anymore as the Illinois senator used his twin victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii to reinforce his status as front-runner. ... The latest total delegate tallies from The Associated Press showed Obama with 1,336 and Clinton with 1,251. ...
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