Pre-Strike Vote article

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/20/arts/television/20cons.html

If Writers Go on Strike, Viewers Can Expect More Shots of Reality

By BROOKS BARNES
Published: October 20, 2007

LOS ANGELES, Oct. 19 - During the last Hollywood writers strike, in
1988, David Letterman gave a blunt assessment of the quality of his
show.

"We have nothing to do, the writers aren't here," he intoned at the
opening of one show. "So a guy's gonna come in and shave me. Fifty-
five minutes, ladies and gentlemen! Fifty-five minutes to go!"

Viewers may want to brace themselves for a lot of similarly jury-
rigged entertainment if writers and producers do not come to an
agreement on a new contract by the end of the month.

A strike by the Writers Guild of America, which could begin as soon as
Nov. 1, would cut a ragged edge across the entertainment industry,
with television and movies affected in different ways. Depending on
the timing and length of a strike, some television shows would grind
along just fine, while others would jerk to a halt. "The Simpsons" is
safe, for instance, but light a candle for "Lost." And reality shows,
whose writers are nonunion, will become even more of a television
staple than they are now.

Meanwhile, moviegoers would not feel any immediate impact, because
studios work a year or more in advance and have been stockpiling
scripts to shoot in case writers walk the picket line. But some big
franchise films, like the "Transformers" sequel, are likely to be
delayed. And fans could suffer later on, as films pushed earlier into
production surface with poor results in 2009.

"Any time you rush movies, you disrupt the rhythm, and I can promise
you the result isn't as good," said John Davis, a producer of
"Norbit," "I, Robot" and other movies.

If a work stoppage lasts for just a few days or even a few weeks,
there would be relatively little impact on the overall entertainment
pipeline, producers say. Networks have between four and five episodes
for many prime-time shows ready to go, while studios are wrapping and
rushing into production already written movies that are not scheduled
to arrive in theaters until the end of 2008 and into 2009.

But one sliver of the business in particular faces immediate
disruption. Late-night shows from "Late Show With David Letterman" on
CBS to "The Colbert Report" on Comedy Central are produced daily, with
writers massaging the news of the day into comedic segments and
monologues.

For a time, fans should expect to see repeat episodes, as if the hosts
had departed on some kind of joint vacation, networks say. In the
longer term, hosts like Jon Stewart of "The Daily Show" could just
wing it, as Mr. Letterman and Johnny Carson did after several months
of reruns in 1988. (At one point during that five-month industrywide
strike, Mr. Carson filled time by looking at snapshots brought in by
Ed McMahon.)

Networks say some late-night hosts could return to work without
violating guild strike rules: while contracts vary, a performer
writing for himself is covered by a separate agreement with the
American Federation of Television and Radio Artists. A spokeswoman for
the Writers Guild of America East said hosts could not write any more
material than they personally handled pre-strike.

Daytime shows would suffer next. Soap operas like "The Young and the
Restless," viewed by some six million people a day, typically have a
monthlong backlog of episodes. Because of their serial nature, soap
operas do not perform well in repeats. Networks say they would try to
maintain ratings during the day in the event of a strike by
substituting more news and sports programming.

The rest of daytime is a jumble. News writers are represented by a
different union, so "Today" on NBC and the cable news channels will be
unaffected - except for the bags that will form under the eyes of
anchors as they are pressed to fill more airtime. But talk shows are
all over the map: "The View," which uses union writers, would be
thrown into more chaos than normal, while "The Martha Stewart Show"
would continue cooking right along.

Of course, most viewers care about prime time. Although each network
is different - with only two hours to program each night, and
"American Idol," which would be unaffected, on the way, Fox is sitting
pretty - network executives say a couple of general rules apply.

Long-running shows like NBC's "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit" are
likely to stay in original episodes longer because they are further
ahead in production than new programs like ABC's "Pushing Daisies."
And the so-called sweeps periods in November and February, when
advertising rates are set for local stations, still matter. So
networks will keep what originals they have for those months and leave
December and January more barren than usual.

Genre matters, too. Animated series like "The Simpsons" and "Family
Guy," completed up to a year in advance, are strike-proof for this
season at least. Much more problematic are complicated serial dramas
like "Lost," which networks typically broadcast without repeats. With
the next season of "Lost" (which begins in February) only half
finished, ABC has a big decision to make: Should it show the episodes
that are done? Or delay the program's return until all episodes can be
completed?

Of course, reality shows are not affected at all. Networks have been
stockpiling reality material in the event of a strike. The CW network
alone has five completed reality series ready to go: the returning
shows "America's Next Top Model," "Beauty and the Geek" and "Pussycat
Dolls Present," and the new entries "Farmer Wants a Wife" and
"Crowned," about beauty pageants.

Warren Littlefield, an independent producer and the former president
of NBC, who was that network's executive vice president of programming
during the last writers strike, said the news divisions would be
pushed to deliver spicy specials to plug holes. He noted that the CBS
newsmagazine "48 Hours" rose to prominence in 1988. Sports, concerts
and shows produced in Britain and Australia are also likely to pop up
in prime time, depending on the length of a strike. NBC is already
looking at the possibility of broadcasting the British version of "The
Office."

The lack of a clear road map for consumers is a worry for
entertainment executives. After all, movie and television fans, their
allegiance already weakening as video games and the Internet eat up
more leisure time, don't need additional prodding to find something
else to do.

"There is tremendous fear in the industry about breaking a habit," Mr.
Littlefield said. "During the last strike, the audience wandered and a
lot of people didn't quite come back."

On the bright side, the 1988 strike played a big role in introducing
at least one guilty pleasure to a national audience. Desperate for
programming, Fox plucked "Cops" from a local station and placed it on
Saturday night, where it continues to run.

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