OT: Oscar Predictions 2006

We all have our specialties, and make our contributions to the group as best
we can. James Langdell and others entertain us intermittently with Mock Top
Tens that are at least as funny as anything the staff of The Big Show can
put together...Pat Fleet reminds us once a month who's celebrating a
birthday...invaluable summaries of various aspects of each new episode are
posted by Micah, Brady and the Pages, among others.



Me? I watch way too many movies. It's what I do...I'm a movie geek. And
best of all, I only have to produce once a year. So, here we go...



2006 Oscar Predictions



I managed to see all but two of the big nominees this year (I missed Junebug
and Mrs. Henderson Presents). This year's picks seem much more
straightforward than any in recent memory. There were more noteworthy
performances than usual, but most of the Big Ticket categories each have a
clear favorite.



ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Judi Dench - MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS

Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA

Keira Knightly - PRIDE & PREJUDICE (oh, come on! Are you givling kidding
me?!?!?)

Charlize Theron - NORTH COUNTRY

Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE



It's an insult to the other nominees to be considered alongside Keira
Knightly. Nuff said.

Felicity Huffman's portrayal of a transsexual's cross-country trip with the
son she never new she fathered before the surgery proves she's got acting
chops far beyond the TV sitcom roles she's played for the last decade. Any
other year, she'd be fighting it out with Charlize Theron for the Oscar.
But, this year, Reese Witherspoon got a serious role (and proved she can
sing, along the way).

Should win: Felicity Huffman

Will win: Reese Witherspoon.





ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE

Terrence Howard - HUSTLE & FLOW

Heath Ledger - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Joaquin Phoenix - WALK THE LINE

David Strathairn - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK



Straitharn and Phoenix picked the wrong year for their performances. Both
are Oscar-worthy, but neither stands a chance in this group. Terrence
Howard turned in two killer performances, in Crash and Hustle & Flow, but
the race this year is between Hoffman and Ledger. And Hoffman is a superb
actor, playing an over-the-top character.

Should win: Hoffman

Will win: Hoffman





ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Amy Adams - JUNEBUG

Catherine Keener - CAPOTE

Frances McDormand - NORTH COUNTRY

Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER

Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN



Michelle Williams was one of the best parts of Brokeback Mountain, along
with the eye-popping cinematography, but her performance got washed away by
the publicity of "the gay cowboys." All the buzz for the last couple of
months was how Rachel Weisz has this Oscar sewn up, but you watch Catherine
Keener get a dark horse Oscar. You heard it here first.

Should win: Weisz or Keener

Will win: Keener





ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

George Clooney - SYRIANA

Matt Dillon - CRASH

Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN

Jake Gyllenhaal - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE



Poor William Hurt. He deserves an Oscar, but since nobody saw his movie,
nobody realizes it (rent it, as soon as it comes out. Thank me later).
Matt Dillon turned in the performance of his career, but that's not saying
much...it's Matt Dillon, fercryinoutloud! I can't say anything that hasn't
already been said about Jake Gyllenhaal, but when it comes down to it, he
played a gay cowboy in a wide-release motion picture, and there's still too
much stigma yet to be handing out awards from the homophobe mainstream. The
fact that the movie got as many nominations as it did is amazing, but that's
as much of an award as the actors are going to get this year. Baby
steps...baby steps. George Clooney could win as Syriana's cynical CIA
agent, but the story wasn't him, it was what was going on around him.
Giamatti didn't have much to work with as Russell Crowe's trainer in Cindere
lla Man, but he squeezed every bit of emotion out of it that he could, and
the Academy owes him big time for screwing him last year for Sideways.

Should win: Gyllenhaal

Will win: Giamatti





DIRECTOR

George Clooney - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK

Paul Haggis - CRASH

Ang Lee - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Bennett Miller - CAPOTE

Steven Spielberg - MUNICH



This is where I went wrong last year. Let's see if I'm any better at it
this time around. Paul Haggis - very nice work, but it just came across as
too contrived, and too forced. Yes, I get it. Racism is bad. Everybody's
a racist in their own way, and many of us saw uncomfortable reminders of
ourselves in some of the characters in Crash. Now, get out of the way and
let Steven Soderbergh get back to making these morality lessons, instead of
the dreck he's been pumping out with George Clooney lately. Bennett Miller
wouldn't even be mentioned here, if P.S. Hoffman hadn't blown the roof off
the dump with his performance. Spielberg? Pfeh...when's Indiana Jones 4
being released? Clooney actually deserves consideration for the subdued and
powerful Good Night, but what can you do, up against Brokeback Mountain?

Should win: Ang Lee

Will win: Ang Lee





BEST PICTURE

Brokeback Mountain

Capote

Crash

Good Night, and Good Luck

Munich



Puhleeze. Slam dunk. Quit wasting our time, and open the envelope.

Should win: Brokeback Mountain

Will win: Brokeback Mountain


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